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December 13, 2016

Repeal of the Affordable Care Act

The transition from the Obama Administration to the Trump Administration is in full swing, and most Americans from all points on the political spectrum are transfixed with a daily barrage of news stories focusing on the proposed and expected changes that come with the territory.  Cabinet selections and other personnel moves are carefully studied and discussed so much that the speculation on future of policy direction has reached critical mass, well in advance of confirmation hearings for those appointments needing to be approved by Congress.

The tea-leaf reading regarding policy direction is generating a wealth of research and there are many articles, studies and reports emanating from assorted think tanks and foundations, each giving their predictions on the impact of impending and still speculative directions of the new Administration.  While environmental, energy, military and commerce policies are fair game for both the think tanks and the rumor mill, none of these seem to be creating as much concern as the immediate future of the United States public and private health care systems.  Just in the last few days 3 major studies have been released and drawn incredible attention; all of them describe in detail the potential effects of the repeal of the Affordable Care Act.

The Urban Institute has issued a comprehensive report which details how up to 30 million people would lose health coverage should a partial repeal take place.

“a partial repeal through reconciliation would reverse the government-subsidized coverage gained by an estimated 22.5 million Americans under the law while also destabilizing the private insurance markets where consumers purchase their own health plans outside of work — resulting in an additional 7.3 million uninsured.”

“Partial” repeal is defined by Urban Institute:  “Congress is now considering partial repeal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) through the budget reconciliation process. Since only components of the law with federal budget implications can be changed through reconciliation, this approach would permit elimination of the Medicaid expansion, the federal financial assistance for Marketplace coverage (premium tax credits and cost-sharing reductions), and the individual and employer mandates; it would leave the insurance market reforms (including the nongroup market’s guaranteed issue, prohibition on preexisting condition exclusions, modified community rating, essential health benefit requirements, and actuarial value standards) in place. There is currently no consensus around alternative health policies to enact as the ACA is repealed; consequently, partial repeal via reconciliation without replacement is possible and merits analysis.”

The Florida Policy Institute has issued a preliminary brief on the direct effect on Floridians with data culled from both the Urban Institute and from the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities. The key findings include:
·      Repeal of the Affordable Care Act would cost Florida $87.3 Billion by 2028
·      Repeal would almost double the number of Floridians without health care coverage.
·      More than two million Floridians would lose their current coverage.

A detailed study submitted to The Federation of American Hospitals (FAH) and to The American Hospital Association (AHA) by Dobson DaVanzo & Associates of Virginia suggests that 28 million newly uninsured Americans will be added to the current 22 million without coverage, for a total uninsured population higher than before the Affordable Care Act went into effect in 2013. The study points to a $165-billion-dollar cost to the hospital network in the event of repeal.

The Kaiser Family Foundation has a report out which breaks out the impacts state by state and the Palm Beach Post took a close look at the figures pertaining to Florida. “Florida and its Obamacare customers have the most to lose — more than $5.2 billion — of any state in the country if Congress and the incoming Trump administration pull the plug on government subsidies that make monthly health premiums more affordable, according to a study released Wednesday. That’s about $305 per subsidized Florida customer per month, the Kaiser Family Foundation said. The $5.2 billion in jeopardized government premium aid ranks above even California ($4.6 billion) and Texas ($3 billion), the study found”

Floridians seeking affordable health care insurance and access to quality care can only wait and see what our elected officials in Washington and Tallahassee have in store, and we urge consumers to continue to push their representatives for fair policies that have beneficial outcomes for all of our citizens.

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